The Weekly Look-Ahead

October 15, 2019

In an election that has mostly been about nothing, last week’s English and French official debates seemed to have been very impactful in the polls.  In the days that followed, the NDP and Bloc surged and left the Conservatives with the slightest edge.

The surge of the NDP and the Bloq came at the expense of the Liberals, who for the first time in the election period trail—by a slight margin—to the Conservatives on both popular vote and seats projections. At time of publication, there was less than 1% in popular vote and one seat projected between Liberals and Conservatives.

With only six days to go before October 21st, the election is wide open between Liberals and Conservatives. You can expect that both Mr. Scheer and Mr. Trudeau will spend most of their time this week in battleground regions with disputed toss-up ridings, such as New Brunswick, B.C., Quebec—which features many three-way and four-way races, and of course the seat rich, swing 905 region in Ontario.

After a strong performance on both debates, the release of his costed campaign platform on Friday, and an announcement on what would be the first 100 priorities of a Conservative Government, Mr. Scheer will focus on affordability and criticism of Mr. Trudeau’s record.

Mr. Trudeau will focus his message on what would happen if people don’t vote Liberal, given his relative decrease in popularity as some progressive voters have shifted their support towards Jagmeet Singh. Mr. Trudeau will focus his message on Mr. Scheer’s planned spending cuts, as well as how “a vote for the NDP is a vote for a Conservative Government, and a progressive opposition”, as well as how only the Liberals have a real feasible climate plan.

Mr. Singh, in contrast, has seen how his positive, personable change message has yield dividends in the polls. He will likely stay the course, engaging under the “I will fight for you” narrative, discussing how voting for the NDP ensures that pharmacare, climate change, and affordability, taxing the rich figure atop of a new Government’s agenda.