Election Debrief

October 22, 2019

Liberals Win a Strong Minority Government

The ballots are counted and the results are in: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has retained power. His Liberal Party will form the next federal government.

Trudeau did not emerge unscathed. Dropping 22 seats, the Liberals have lost their majority status and will now have to find support from other parties to pass legislation. They will also not control each of the Committees in the House of Commons, which has proven a headache to minority governments of the past.

With a 36 seat advantage over the Conservatives in second place, a formal power-sharing coalition between the Liberals and the NDP does not look to be in the cards. Instead, the Liberals will garner support from the Conservatives, the NDP and the Bloc Québécois on an ad-hoc basis to survive confidence votes and successfully pass legislation. Both the Bloc and the NDP have spelled out their conditions for working with the Liberals. The question of the moment is how sustainable any such cooperation might be.

In the note that follows, Sussex Strategy Group’s Federal Government practice unpacks the results and provides initial thoughts on the days, weeks and months ahead.

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